Thanks for the feedback. Actually, I think that the role of pentesting fits very well into a view of this. While doing an assessment, you can very easily articulate your findings into probabilistic phrases.
- “Given an active adversary on a laptop on our network, I predict a 30% chance that this unpatched server will be found.”
- “If these 6 vulnerabilities are fixed by my next engagement, I predict a 15% likelihood that I can move into the production subnet. If they are not fixed, I predict a 90% chance of success.”
- “I predict a 1% detection rate of an adversary on this network, given that I have not seen any centralized logging or network detection infrastructure”.
Participating in things like the Good Judgement Open helps practice that phrasing.