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Prediction of Adversarial Behavior

Exploring the quantitative characteristics of your adversary.

A crucial question in risk measurement is whether an intelligent adversary’s behavior can be forecasted with quantitative methods similar to meteorology, nuclear, or aerospace’s approach towards risk.

An intelligent adversary is a source of uncertainty.

There are obvious differences between a hurricane and a hacker, but they are both sources of uncertain behavior.

Measurement of the “bad guys”.

We predict adversarial behavior regularly.

It doesn’t take much evidence to prove that we continuously make predictions about adversarial behavior, whether it’s a decision to enter or withdraw from a market, play a game a certain way or secure a system a certain way.

Prediction of an adversary: Philosophically

Quantitative prediction of an adversary lies in the field of game theory.

Prediction of an adversary by industry

Our industry loves to cite Sun-Tzu quotes and opine about the usefulness threat intelligence.

So how does this look in the cyber security space?

See the following essays on red teams, OKRs, attribution.


Adversarial risk is very different from other quantified industries in terms of the subject matter being predicted.

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Writing about risk, security, and startups.

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