Hypothesis, Risk, and Science

This new fertilizer will make the plant grow faster.

When I patch, an unwanted outcome is reduced.

Example: We will disclose an incident to a regulator (90% / 4 Years) and suffer monetary losses.

Note: This essay is concerned about rare, high impact events.

Were we hacked, but didn’t know?

When I think of formal scientific method an image sometimes comes to mind of an enormous juggernaut, a huge bulldozer-slow, tedious, lumbering, laborious, but invincible― Robert M. Pirsig



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