Forecasting BlueKeep

Will exploitation of CVE-2019–0708 (Bluekeep) be observed by the security community “in the wild?”


Chances are about even (47.62%) for “in the wild” BlueKeep exploitation to be observed between now and end of June.



  • Observed between now and 6/8/2019. (“Immediately”)
  • Observed between 6/9/2019 and 6/30/2019 (“By end June”)
  • Observed between 7/1/2019 and 7/30/2019 (“In July”)
  • Observed on 8/1/2019 or after. Or, never. (“In August or later, if at all”)


Analysis (Whole Panel)

Analysis (Calibrated Panel)





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Ryan McGeehan

Ryan McGeehan

Writing about risk, security, and startups.

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