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Estimating the $ of a Security Incident.

Using growth metrics to help forecast a bad day.

How bad would it be if we were breached?

The Executive Summary

Analyzing user and revenue growth metrics.

How do active customers typically fluctuate?

How drastically does their MRR fluctuate?

How much do customers fluctuate in value?

Let’s revisit their previous “bad day”.

They handled their breach really well.

Let’s estimate a *new* bad day.

Here are three future incident forecasts:

What’s up with these numbers?

What influenced my forecast?

What can be said with this data?

If a similar incident were to be handled poorly, I think there is a 90% probability we could lose $12k–$400k in MRR.

If we could handle it as well as last time, it will look more like $8k-$50k of lost MRR.

Conclusion

Writing about risk, security, and startups.